Kourosh Ahmadi noted that despite that a year has passed since the start of the Vienna talks to resuscitate the JCPOA, it’s unclear when the deal will be revived.
He added that it’s likely that the parties to the talks have put the negotiations on hold and are waiting for the Ukraine war to end.
Ahmadi noted that if that’s the case, the dust has cleared and the outcome of the war and its impact on the international community is clear.
The veteran diplomat added that Russia’s failure to achieve a swift victory in the war and its failure in the propaganda warfare as well as the fact that Moscow is facing accusations of genocide and war crimes in Ukraine, will get the Kremlin bogged down in this quagmire for the years to come.
Ahmadi said time is right for Iran to strike a deal with the P4+1 because the West is in a weak position due to the Ukraine war and is ready to grant concessions to Tehran.
According to this former Iranian diplomat, Iran can regain its place in the world’s oil markets because of the huge shortages of crude in those markets as a result of Western sanctions on Russia.
Ahmadi warned that if the war subsides and the oil prices plunge, it will be difficult for Iran to extract concessions from the West.