In an interview with Entekhab news website, Seyyed Jalal Sadatian weighed in on the possibility of a conflict between Iran and the United States over the movement of Iranian oil tankers toward Venezuela.
“Iran has sent five super oil tankers carrying petrol to Venezuela. However, the Americans claim some 9 tonnes of gold was offered as money for that amount of petrol,” said the analyst.
“What seems obvious and definite is that the petrol-carrying super tankers bound for Venezuela were Iranian-flagged. This shows that Iran has ignored US sanctions and intends to humiliated Trump’s sanctions and policies. With this in mind, one can say Iran’s dispatching its oil tankers to Venezuela is a logical and rightful move, but its Washington and Trump that reserve the right to stand against Tehran-Caracas relations by adopting a bullying and above-the-law stance and by reliance on their military and economic power,” he noted.
“Now, this begs the question of whether or not Trump is likely to order the seizure of, or attacks on Iranian oil tankers. In response to this question, one may refer to the game theory. Based on this, if Trump makes a move in this regard, he will be regarded as an aggressor and violator of human rights in the court of public opinion, and if he takes no action, doubts will grow over his competence and remarks,” he noted.
“It is possible that a scenario similar to what happened with regards to the seizure of the British oil tanker unfolds under the current circumstances. That means if the US Navy makes any move, Iran will seize one or several American oil tankers, in response,” he said.
“Unfortunately, the secretary of state of the Trump administration is basically advancing the strategies and will of Zionist lobbies, which really want an escalation of confrontations with Iran. They are even pushing for a direct military conflict between Tehran and Washington,” he said.
“Zionist and Saudi lobbies know well that they, by no means, have what it takes to get involved in a direct conflict with Iran in the region. Therefore, they are trying to directly involve the US Army in this saga, so that it may bear fruit for them,” he said.
Elsewhere in his remarks, the analyst said “now, the US president is in a difficult situation when it comes to decision-making.”
He said some analysts believe Trump is unable to take serious action fearing the negative impact of a conflict with Iran on his political future, which has assured Iran tha5 its tankers can reach Venezuela safely.
“But it remains to be seen whether or not the United States will try to seize these oil tankers,” he added.
The expert also expressed his views on how Trump’s possible risk of attacking Iranian tankers will affect its political future in the US presidential election slated for November 2020.
“On the whole, we are of the conviction that Trump is likely to get into a dangerous game. In fact, in the remaining few months, Trump is trying to create credit for himself and his words. He wants to say that, as US president, he is able to put his words into action and he might take the risk and involve the US in a military confrontation. Such an incident can be seriously detrimental to Trump and set the stage for his defeat in the November election,” said the analyst.
“Although this scenario will pose a danger to Iran, it will leave Trump on shaky ground as well. However, one should bear in mind that Trump lacks the power of strategic analysis and has mostly acted out of emotion and impulsive decisions,” said the analyst.
“The US withdrawal from UNESCO, the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate agreement could be seen as a potent example of such behaviour; so, there is a possibility of Trump posing a danger even in the last steps,” he said.