“When Russia achieves its military objectives in Ukraine and begins diplomatic haggling with the west, then Iran and the JCPOA will be a card in the hands of the Russians to play with,” foreign policy analyst Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh says.
Falahatpisheh says Russians would have never allowed an agreement on the nuclear deal before an attack on Ukraine because they see every international issue, including the JCPOA, through the lens of their first foreign policy priority, that is, Ukraine.
“Optimistic tweets by [Russia’s representative to Vienna talks Mikhaeil] Ulyanov should have made Iranians more worried, but unfortunately, some sort of credulity came to rule Iran’s foreign policy, so that the Russians were practically given the rein in the negotiations. Ulyanov, who pretended to be most eager for an agreement, in practice, tried to drive a wedge between the stance of Iran and the US, because Iran had no direct talks with the US and our main intermediary were the same Russians,” he said.
Falahatpisheh said Iran should now be cautious and should make sure that the nuclear deal does not become a bargaining chip in the hands of Russians in their cold war-like dealings with the west.
The university professor said Russians tried hard to prevent the issue of Ukraine from becoming the world’s topmost priority. He said, however, that Ukraine did become the number one concern of the world and “American are even ready to resolve other issues, including the issue of the JCPOA, to better pursue their new cold war against Russia”.
“Despite all sanctions against Russia, the only topic that was never discussed, was sanctions on Russia’s oil and natural gas, because Russia could keep its upper hand in the energy market,” Falahatpisheh said.
“In the current situation, the more seriously Iran advances the negotiations, based on an unmediated negotiating text with Americans, the more the possibility of these threats to turn into new opportunities. Any foot-dragging in signing the JCPOA and delaying things until after the [conclusion of] the military campaign in Ukraine, will give Iran the lower hand.”