Iran on the verge of falling into ‘demographic black hole’

Iran is experiencing a critical demographic transition, with over 10 million unmarried youth of marriageable age and a fertility rate below the replacement threshold of 2.1, experts warn.

In an interview with ISNA news agency, Dr. Mehrzad Naseri, Deputy for Health Affairs at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, emphasized the urgency of leveraging Iran’s current “demographic window,” a period marked by a high proportion of the population aged 15 to 65, to prevent long-term population decline.

Speaking during National Population Week, Naseri stressed that if this window closes without significant policy intervention, Iran could face a “demographic black hole” that would be difficult to reverse. The number of births in the past year fell by 7%, totaling fewer than 980,000.

He called for short-, medium-, and long-term strategies to reverse declining fertility, citing lifestyle changes, delayed marriages, economic pressures, and increased rates of cesarean deliveries as contributing factors.

Naseri underscored the vital role of media and public cooperation in ensuring a youthful future for Iran, warning that continued inaction may lead to irreversible aging of the population.

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