Trump to Lose 2020 Elections If He Wages War on Iran: Analyst

US President Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the Amway Centre in Orlando, Florida to officially launch his 2020 campaign on June 18, 2019. / Photo by AFP

An Iranian analyst on international affairs maintains that US President Donald Trump is fully aware that waging a war against Iran will cost him losing the next presidential elections in 2020.

In an interview with Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper, Abu Mohammad Asgarkhani elaborated on the role that Iran-US ties can play in the result of the next US presidential votes.

“Trump knows well that entering into conflict with Iran will lead to his defeat in the presidential election,” he noted.

“I think Trump suffers from a political bipolar disease. Today he says something but tomorrow makes a completely different move. But the Leader of the Islamic Revolution rightly made a resolute decision by rejecting his offer for talks,” he said, stressing that Iran cannot trust such a moody person.

“Trump seeks to hold talks with Iran without conditions to gain more votes in the next election but it goes without saying that he would intensify his aggression against Iran in his next presidency,” he noted.

“Trump will definitely adopt a more aggressive approach towards Iran after gaining victory in the next election. Iran’s leader has got the point and said he doesn’t see Trump deserving a reply.”

He then referred to the latest visit of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Iran who carried a message from Trump to the Iranian leaders and said the message was deceitful.

“The message said that Israel and some Arab states of the region as well as the US Republicans are after war with Iran. It was aimed at pressurizing Iran into sitting for talks with the US to resolve the current conflicts,” he said.

Regarding the Iran nuclear deal, he said Iran has already lived up to its pledges under the deal and now it is the US which should do so.

“Unfortunately, the US has not yet fulfilled its commitments under the deal. So, how on the earth can we get back to the JCPOA? Does the US have the legal right to put sanctions on Iran’s oil industry based on the JCPOA? How about its sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and oil tankers? So, the measures make returning to the JCPOA nonsense.”

“It is not acceptable that the US puts sanctions on the Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). The Iranian force has been fighting the regional terrorists. The Americans are after undermining the IRGC. So, talks with the US have no justification,” he added.

He also touched on the European Union mechanism for financial transactions with Iran, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, known as INSTEX, and said neither the US, nor the Europeans recognize the INSTEX as an efficient mechanism.

“If Iran gets involved in a financial exchange with the EU within the INSTEX, it is not clear whether or not it can follow up any related dispute with the EU through international bodies. I think the response is negative because Iran is a government but the other side is not a government. It is a private company,” he said.

According to the analyst, the Europeans are seeking to confine Iran within a certain framework and leave it empty-handed.

“So, Trump is seeking to buy time on the one hand to exert more pressure on Iran and to gain victory in the next presidential elections on the other hand,” he concluded.

   
   

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