Realities on the ground show it is US President Donald Trump, not Iranians, who has reached an impasse, a political analyst says.
Senior commentator Yadollah Javani has, in an article published on the Basirat news website, weighed in on the tensions between Iran and the US. Excerpts from the article follow.
US President Donald told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the northwestern French city of Caen on June 6, 2019 that Iran is a country that will reach a stalemate because sanctions against Tehran have been extraordinary and effective.
However, Trump added, the US can change this situation. Trump said he knew that Iran wanted to hold talks with the US, adding Washington was ready for negotiations with Tehran.
Now, a fundamental question has arisen in political circles around the world, and that is, which one has reached a dead-end: Iran or the US? The answer to this strategic question will depict the future and its features. The reality is that there is a smart and multifaceted war going on between Iran and the United States in all domains, except a direct military conflict. The Americans have come to the scene with all their power, and their only aim is to force Iran into submission through negotiations. In this arena of all-out conflict and confrontation, the main war is one of willpowers.
Business-like Trump had no doubt that after taking the helm at the White House, he would be able to draw on his business skill to shatter forty years of resistance by the Iranian nation and force the Islamic Republic of Iran to submit to the United States. However, two years into Trump’s presidency, he is now seeing other realities unfolding before him and his team. A glance at a few acts of plays by Trump and his team with key men like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo sheds more light on the trends which have taken shape in the past and now, making it almost possible to predict the future.
1. The first act of this play goes back to the time when Trump entered the domain of politics and the election campaign. At that time, Trump adopted very tough stances against the Islamic Republic of Iran, accusing the then US administration of being naïve in dealing with Iran. Trump announced if he was elected to the White House, he would tear up the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and would seriously confront Iran.
2. After setting foot in the White House, and following the psychological warfare he had launched during the first act of his play, Trump called for re-negotiation with Iran and revising the JCPOA or formulating new deals. Trump believed that by kicking up a fuss, Iranian officials would bow to his excessive demands fearing the termination of the JCPOA and would agree to some revisions to the JCPOA. Nevertheless, unlike what Trump thought and contrary to his assessment, which had its roots in his business skills, Iran ruled out the possibility of any talks and revision of the JCPOA.
3. Trump, who had failed in the previous act, staged the third act of his play by announcing the United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA and imposing the most severe sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
By making miscalculations about the domestic situation in Iran, and by drawing on the news reports and intelligence provided by the terrorist group the Mujahadeen-e-Khalq Organization (MKO), monarchists and some other West-leaning local elements, the Americans believed that Iran was teetering on the edge of a precipice and was on the verge of collapse. Accordingly, they set more conditions for a likely dialogue with Iran. The scenario of “Hot Summer” and of the Islamic Republic failing to reach its 40th anniversary was blown all out of proportion in media outlets run by hegemonic powers and anti-revolutionary elements, so much so that the Americans, including individuals such US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, became more delusional than ever.
Pompeo set 12 conditions for negotiations with Iran. He was of the conviction that the US was at the apex of its power and Iran was at the nadir of weakness, and hence, Tehran would have no other option but to accept those conditions. The twelve conditions set by Pompeo had been designed in such a way that accepting them would have meant Iran’s complete submission to the US. The scenario looked as if Iran had been defeated in a military war with the US and had had no other choice but to give in to the demands of the winner!
4. In order to win the battle of willpowers, Trump, on the one hand, spoke of bringing Iran’s oil exports to zero along with intensifying the sanctions, and, on the other, put Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on the list of terrorist groups, suggesting he was using his willpower to mobilize all resources to counter the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to realize and justify its threats against Iran, Trump deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, despite all the ballyhoo and propaganda campaigns by the US and its allies as well as the anti-revolutionary current, last winter was marked by the most glorious scenes of people’s participation in rallies marking the 40th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.
People also turned out en masse in International Quds Day demonstrations, showing their solidarity against the enemy.
5. The show of power in the resistance of Palestinians in hero Gaza during the recent war with the launch of more than 800 missiles and rockets, nearly 70 percent of which slipped through the iron dome; the determination of the government and army and the popular resistance in Syria to liberate Idlib as the last stronghold of the US-sponsored terrorists; the insistence of Iraqis on cooperation with Iran and ignoring the sanctions; the show of power by the Yemenis and their superiority in the field with the use of their advanced drone unit; emergence of signs of the Islamic Republic’s success in tackling pressures, bypassing the sanctions, turning the sanctions and threats into opportunities to reduce economic dependence on foreigners including the sale of crude oil; and the appearance of the Islamic Republic’s resolve to seriously counter any kind of American military action in the region have all proved the calculations and evaluations of the US and Trump and his team false.
It was in such circumstances that Mr Pompeo with his 12 conditions talked about negotiations with Iran without preconditions, in an unequivocal manner and with a 12-position collapse! It was under such circumstances that Trump officially announced during the visit to Japan that he is not pursuing an overthrow of the Islamic Republic and its leaders and called on the Japanese to mediate between Iran and the US.
Now these acts of the play have been visible to all analysts and experts of strategic issues before Mr Trump’s move into the White House until today.
The Islamic Republic emphasizes the strategic option of not negotiating with the promise-breaking and untrustworthy US, and is rapidly overcoming the obstacles and problems caused by the pressures and sanctions. But the selfish US and Trump with narcissism derived from his art of making deals in the economic field are now begging everybody for negotiations with the Islamic Republic in the sphere of politics, and are looking for a way out of a self-inflicted impasse.
Trump has now realized what predicament he has gotten into by advisors like Bolton and secretaries such as Pompeo. He has now realized that the field of politics is different from economics. He has now realized that the Iranian nation and their steadfast leader are completely different from the other nations and world leaders. Yes, he is now understanding the fact that the Iranian nation’s resistance is unending and that the Islamic Republic will never abandon the ideology and thought of resistance. Yes, a nation which exercises resistance in the face of the enemies of God on the basis of its beliefs and religious faith will never reach a dead end, because it has faith in the word of God that says: “As for those who strive for us, we will guide them in our ways. God is with the doers of good.” (Quran, Al-Ankaboot Sura, 69)