The YouGov polling of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK was carried out in a dramatic week that left Europe’s leaders scrambling to respond to the prospect of the US pulling long-term support from Ukraine and its European allies.
As the EU debates an €800bn plan to “rearm” Europe, the survey found that only a minority of respondents believed the remaining western allies would be able to support Ukraine if the US withdrew – but relatively few backed greater defence spending.
Most Europeans think it is unacceptable to exclude Kyiv or Europe from peace talks and, while many think Russia would probably attack Ukraine again even after a deal, opinions are divided on Franco-British proposals to deploy European peacekeepers.
After Trump’s apparent alignment with Russia, the polling, carried out between 26 February and 4 March, found majorities in all five countries believed the US president had become a “very big or fairly big threat to peace and security in Europe”.
That sentiment was weakest in Italy at 58%, rising to 69% in France, 74% in Germany, 75% in Spain and 78% in the UK. By comparison, the share of people who said Russia’s Vladimir Putin was a threat ran from 74% in Italy to 89% in the UK.
Trump’s popularity, tested across four countries but not Germany, was also exceptionally low, with majorities ranging from 80% in the UK to 63% in Italy saying they held an unfavourable view of Trump, against a range of 89% to 77% for Putin.
Europeans have become markedly less willing to support the US militarily in the event of it coming under attack, the polling showed, and are also significantly more sceptical that Washington would honour its collective defence commitments under the Nato treaty.
If Russia were to attack the Baltic states and Poland, only between 18% and 39% of people in the UK, France, Spain and Italy believed the US would go to their aid – although people were more confident the US would defend their own respective countries.
Few Europeans think the remaining western allies would be able to support Ukraine enough for it to keep defending itself if the US pulls out: a third of Spaniards (35%) and Britons (33%), and a quarter (24-25%) in France, Germany and Italy.
Many people say they want Ukraine to win the war. In the UK, 67% share that sentiment and say they care a great deal or fair amount that it does, followed by Spain (57%), Germany (52%), France (50%) and Italy (34%). Only 2-7% want a Russian victory.
But while similarly large numbers say current levels of support are not enough to stop Moscow from winning, only a minority in each think that their own country should boost its aid efforts, ranging from 9% in Italy to 24% in the UK.
After European leaders stressed the need for a major and urgent increase in defence spending, recognition that defence budgets would have to rise in the face of uncertain US support has risen, although not to a particularly striking extent.
Britons are the most likely to say so at 46% (up six points), against 39% in France (up 12), 32% in Spain (up six), and just 11% in Italy (unchanged). In December 45% of Germans, who were not asked the question this time, said spending was too low.
The US administration’s decision to seek a peace deal directly with Russia is very unpopular, with majorities (52-78%) in Britain, Spain, France and Italy seeing the exclusion of Ukraine as unacceptable. Large numbers felt the same about Europe.
Most Britons (65%) and Spaniards (55%) think Russia would probably attack Ukraine within 10 years of any peace deal, as do 49% of French respondents and 48% of Germans. Italians were split, with 35% thinking another war likely and 37% not.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, have proposed stationing European peacekeepers in Ukraine to counter such an eventuality, and more people support the idea than not in both countries.
About 52% of Britons back the plan, compared with 27% who were opposed, with French respondents 49% for and 29% against. Spaniards were also supportive (53%), but only 36% and 37% were willing in Germany and Italy, with 45% and 47% opposed.
The survey also revealed a widespread belief that Russia would attack other European countries within the next decade. Six in 10 Britons thought this was likely, as did 44-47% of respondents in France, Germany and Spain, though 45% of Italians thought it unlikely.
