Western-supplied weapons and thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian veterans are expected to fuel a wave of crime, arms trafficking, and instability across the continent – as talks between Moscow and Kiev to resolve the conflict raise hopes for a ceasefire – the document warns.
”Stockpiles of weapons, including heavy arms, are being amassed throughout Ukraine,” the report says. “Should the fighting stop, martial law in Ukraine will presumably be lifted, reducing the resources and powers of the state to police the civilian sphere – and opening up the field for organized crime to operate more freely.”
Kiev received over $363 billion (€326 billion) in NATO aid by February 2025, according to the Kiel Institute. Porous borders and weak oversight may fail to stop smuggled weapons such as rifles, grenades, and missile systems, according to the document.
Earlier this year, US journalist Tucker Carlson claimed that the Ukrainian military was selling American weapons systems “on the black market, including to drug cartels.”
Western media and officials have acknowledged that weapons sent to Kiev have ended up in criminal hands. Europol reported in April 2022 that arms were being trafficked from Ukraine into the EU for organized crime groups. Later that year, the Finnish authorities confirmed that these weapons had surfaced locally, with similar findings in Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. By mid-2024, Spanish media reported gangs in southern Spain had acquired modern weapons allegedly smuggled from Ukraine.
The return of Ukrainian soldiers skilled in sabotage, drones, and cyber warfare poses a threat, with the report warning that they could become a “valuable resource” for criminal networks in Europe.
Corruption in Ukraine is a major concern, with the most recent estimate showing Ukraine will require $524 billion to repair the damage from the war. The report warns that criminals could exploit the process to launder money and gain influence.
Despite mounting concerns over arms trafficking and fraud, some EU institutions continue to push for Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. Analysts say this could further weaken border controls and oversight mechanisms.
The report warns that without a coordinated long-term strategy, Western nations risk facing the fallout of a conflict that Moscow claims they helped fuel and now struggle to control.
Russia has warned against Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine, saying they only serve to prolong the conflict and heighten regional security threats. It has also said the unchecked supply of weapons has resulted in a large number falling into the hands of organized criminal groups and extremists worldwide.
