The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US raids, one of the sources said, CNN reported.
The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available.
But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also claimed on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear program “have been obliterated”.
Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people added the centrifuges are largely “intact”.
Another source stated that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US attacks, noting, “So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops.”
The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but announced they disagreed with it.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN in a statement, “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
Trump, who’s in the Netherlands attending this week’s NATO summit, pushed back on CNN’s report in a Truth Social post.
“One of the most successful military strikes in history,” Trump wrote in the all-caps post adding, “The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”
The US military has claimed the operation went as planned and that it was an “overwhelming success”.
It is still early for the US to have a comprehensive picture of the impact of the strikes, and none of the sources described how the DIA assessment compares to the view of other agencies in the intelligence community. The US is continuing to pick up intelligence, including from within Iran as they assess the damage.
Israel had been carrying out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for days leading up to the US military operation but claimed to need the US’ 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs to finish the job. While US B-2 bombers dropped over a dozen of the bombs on two of the nuclear sites, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant and the Natanz Enrichment Complex, the bombs did not fully eliminate the sites’ centrifuges and highly enriched uranium, according to the people familiar with the assessment.
Instead, the impact to all three sites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — was largely restricted to aboveground structures, which were severely damaged, the sources claimed. That includes the sites’ power infrastructure and some of the aboveground facilities.
Hegseth also told CNN, “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons. Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.“
On Tuesday morning, Trump repeated his belief the damage from the attacks was significant.
“I think it’s been completely demolished,” he claimed, adding, “Those pilots hit their targets. Those targets were obliterated, and the pilots should be given credit.”
Asked about the possibility of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program, Trump responded, “That place is under rock. That place is demolished.”
While Trump and Hegseth have been bullish about the success of the strikes, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine stated Sunday that while the damage assessment was still ongoing it would be “way too early” to comment on whether Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities.
Earlier on Tuesday, classified briefings for both the House and Senate on the operation were canceled.
As CNN has reported, there have long been questions about whether the US’ bunker-buster bombs, known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators, would be able to fully destroy Iran’s highly fortified nuclear sites that are buried deep underground — particularly at Fordow and Isfahan, Iran’s largest nuclear research complex.
Notably, the US struck Isfahan with Tomahawk missiles launched from a submarine instead of a bunker-buster bomb. That is because there was an understanding that the bomb would likely not successfully penetrate Isfahan’s lower levels, which are buried even deeper than Fordow, one of the sources stated.
