The peer-reviewed statistical analysis published in The Lancet journal was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions.
Using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, the researchers sought to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.
Up to June 30 last year, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.
However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.
The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the Health Ministry had underreported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.
The study estimated that 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian fighters among the dead.
That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants”, the study said.
The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of healthcare or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.
Israel’s war in Gaza has killed at least 46,006 Palestinians and wounded 109,378 since October 7, 2023, the territory’s Health Ministry announced.
The war began on October 7 2023, after Hamas-led attacks across the border with Israel killed at least 1,200 people and led to 250 people being taken captive.
In the first months of the war, the official Health Ministry death count was based entirely on bodies that arrived in hospitals.
It later came to include other methods, including distributing an online survey to Palestinian people inside and outside the Gaza Strip, who were asked to provide data on their ID numbers, names, age at death, sex, location of death, and reporting source.
The Lancet study noted that the Palestinian Health Ministry’s capacity for maintaining electronic death records had previously proven reliable, but has currently deteriorated under Israel’s military campaign, which has included raids on hospitals and other healthcare facilities and disruptions to digital communications.
