Iran and the US have no other option but ink a deal

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July 13, 2015

An Iranian political analyst says that nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 have reached a point of no return.

Sadegh Zibakalam, who is also a university professor, made the comment in an interview with fararu.com on July 12 during which he likened the nuclear talks to an irreversible chemical reaction [which can only proceed in one direction until it reaches completion]. The following is the translation of excerpts from Zibakalam’s remarks in the interview:

Nuclear talks will ultimately lead to a deal. Although the timing of such a deal is still unknown, the two sides have no other option but announce the conclusion of a nuclear deal by July 13 or September at the latest.

The talks will end in a win-win outcome by the July 13 deadline, no matter what that result. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement over a few outstanding issues and have to extend the talks for another period – which is likely to be by September – it does not mean that the talks have produced a breakthrough or ended in a breakdown.

If the result is something other than a deal, the Worriers [the fervent supporters of former President Ahmadinejad and his hardline nuclear policies and the fierce critics of the policies of President Rouhani’s administration] and hardliners inside Iran will beat the drum to claim that the talks have failed, pointing an accusing finger at the US – as usual. In other words, the business of hardliners – which had long been slack and lackluster – will thrive on the eve of Eid (al-Fitr [which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan]).

If no deal is produced at the talks by Monday, the happiness and partying by the Worriers and hardliners in Iran will not last more than two months. In chemistry, some reactions cannot be undone once they are complete; that is to say such reactions are irreversible.

Like these chemical reactions, nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 have reached an irreversible point. If the outcome is anything other than a deal by Monday, the talks are unlikely to return to the conditions that existed prior to June 14, 2013 [when Hassan Rouhani was elected president].

Experts, foreign ministers and their deputies [of the two sides] have held hundreds of hours of technical, political and legal talks in the past two years. In the same period, the US secretary of state has had numerous diplomatic consultations with his Iranian counterpart. If the two sides had not had strong determination to clinch an agreement, they would have not put in this amount of time and energy to settle their differences over Iran’s nuclear program.

[…]

Iran and the United States – the main parties to the talks – as well as other countries in the world and those who seek regional and international stability and peace want the talks to produce a deal. Those who wish to see nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 return to the time before June 14, 2013 – in defiance of all rules and formulas – are the Worriers and hardliners inside Iran; the Republicans in the US; Saudi Arabia and Israel in the region; and all those countries and groups which wish to see a regime change in Iran.

[…]

Although the American hawks and [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu outside Iran and the Worriers inside Iran share one dream, which is no deal between the two sides, they have their own reasons.

The Worriers and hardliners in Iran fret that a nuclear deal may pull the rug of anti-Americanism out from under them on the one hand, and the short-term benefits may be funneled into the coffers of the Rouhani administration on the other. They are also concerned that a nuclear deal may boost the political and intellectual group(s) which have links with the president and can – as a result of the deal – tip the balance in the upcoming parliamentary elections in their own favor.

Except for those who are worried at home and abroad, the decision makers both in Iran and the US have come to the conclusion that a nuclear deal should be struck. A deal, which is sure to happen, will undoubtedly please the majority of people in the two countries.

Nuclear negotiators will come out victorious in talks: President Rouhani

By

Emad Askarieh

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July 13, 2015

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says Iran’s negotiating team will come out victorious in the nuclear talks with P5+1.

The Iranian president made the comments while speaking to a group of women and family rights activists in Tehran on Sunday.

“The country, people, and the negotiating team have carried out their responsibilities toward the talks,” he said.

“Currently, we are very close to the peak (of the nuclear talks) but there are still steps left to reach this peak. With the help of God, Iranian negotiators will emerge victorious from this difficult and complicated battle,” he added.

Safeguarding nuclear rights

Earlier in the day, Rouhani called for implementation of a law aimed at safeguarding Iran’s nuclear rights and achievements after the conclusion of talks.

According to Fars News Agency, Rouhani ordered the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to enforce the law.

Under the law, any conclusion reached during the ongoing nuclear talks with P5+1 should include the “complete” removal of sanctions against Tehran, implemented on the day of reaching an agreement.

It also calls on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to report on the process of “the implementation of the agreement” to the Iranian Parliament (Majlis).

It further states that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is allowed to only conduct “conventional inspections” at nuclear sites and will not be granted access to other sensitive or military sites.

After missing several deadlines, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China – plus Germany are still holding intensive talks in Vienna to iron out the remaining differences and nail down a landmark agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program.

“No extension, we will finish hopefully. We need some more time. We need to do some more work,” Zarif said following a meeting with his US counterpart John Kerry earlier in the day.

Why didn’t Fabius touch on differences in talks this time around?

By

Emad Askarieh

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July 13, 2015

In brief comments outside the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna Sunday, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, “I hope that we are finally entering the final phase of this marathon negotiation.”

A number of journalists covering the nuclear talks in the Austrian capital described his tone as uncharacteristically positive, saying that raises hopes that a final deal is finally within reach.

Unlike what has been a routine over the past two years, Fabius did not talk about the differences of opinion or the tough job that lay ahead; he tried not to be a messenger of ominous news.

His comments could either be indicative of real progress in the talks or be an effort on his part to burnish his poor track record in the negotiations.

Either way, it’s still unclear whether his attempt will produce the intended result, because history suggests Fabius’ theatrics before cameras are far from reliable.

Iranian MPs thank negotiating team for standing firm on red lines

By

Golrokh Askarieh

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July 13, 2015

A group of MPs thanked the country’s negotiating team in the nuclear talks with the world powers for standing firm on the red lines specified by the Islamic Republic.

“During a Sunday meeting of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, the lawmakers thanked the country’s negotiating team for insisting on the Islamic system’s red lines,” the rapporteur of the committee Nozar Shafiee said.

Earlier on Sunday in a similar move, another group of Iranian lawmakers in a statement thanked the country’s negotiating team for their relentless efforts in the nuclear field.

“The resistance of the Islamic Iran’s negotiating representatives against the excessive demands of the arrogant powers, headed by the US, is a source of honor and appreciable,” the statement said.

“The representatives of the great Iranian nation ask the dear negotiators to continue observing the red lines specified by the Islamic Republic and the law approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament) as their criteria and voice opposition to any result that violates these principles,” it added.

[…]

Iran says 14 new planes to join its civil fleet by yearend

By

Golrokh Askarieh

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July 12, 2015

An official at the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran has announced that the country will add 14 new passenger planes to its civil aviation fleet before the end of the current Iranian calendar year (ends March 20, 2016).

A statement released by the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran on Saturday, quoted Hamid Habibi, deputy head of the organization for flight standards, as saying that 14 Airbus and Boeing passenger planes have been overhauled inside the country and will join the civil fleet before the end of year.

“Due to capacities created in the past year, at present, there are 168 active planes in Iranian fleet, which has had no precedent in history of the country’s civil aviation,” the official said.

Habibi added that with 168 planes conducting civil flights, about 67.63 percent of the country’s flight is now active, while the figure was only 60 percent last year, Press TV reported.

He said the total number of planes in Iranian fleet adds up to 257, including 251 passenger planes with 41,218 seats, and 6 cargo planes.

Iran’s minister of roads and urbanization announced in mid-June that the country needs 400 new passenger planes in the next 10 years to renovate its civil aviation fleet.

Abbas Akhoundi, who was in the French capital, Paris, to take part in Le Bourget Airshow 2015, added that purchasing this number of planes will cost the country at least $20 billion.

The Iranian minister said the Islamic Republic attaches special importance to development of its civil aviation fleet, noting, “In addition to the fleet, development of airports and passenger terminals also needs special attention.”

Positive signals out of Iran’s parliament at final hours of nuclear talks

By

Golrokh Askarieh

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July 12, 2015

The speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly says that Iran’s negotiating team is moving forward, hoping nuclear talks with P5+1 can produce a good result.

Ali Larijani made the comment Sunday (July 12) on the ongoing talks in Vienna 24 hours to go before the Monday deadline. The Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) filed a report on the chamber’s reaction to and predictions about what is going to happen in Vienna at the home stretch of nuclear talks.

The following is the translation of the top MP’s remarks followed by comments by two other deputies:

Speaker Larijani

I have a positive view of the talks. Members of the country’s nuclear team are walking down a clear, well-defined and well-thought-out path.

I hope the other side too can act wisely and seize this opportunity. They should not think that the final moments are the best to put new ideas on the table and ratchet up the pressure.

Mounting pressure may backfire. Such tactics [piling pressures] are used for not-complicated talks, but when it comes to complicated and lengthy talks, everything should be thoroughly thought through in advance.

The nuclear talks are moving forward, there are some challenges though. As things stand, they can produce a deal.

Javad Heravi, MP

Today the Islamic Republic of Iran is an island of stability in the Middle East. I would like to say ‘More power to your elbow’ to Dr. Zarif, who is the chivalrous knight of Iran’s foreign policy, and to all his hardworking colleagues.

Iran bears no resemblance to nuclear countries such as North Korea and has proved to be a stable place in the region.

Western powers need to know that they have been put to a global test in nuclear talks and that what they do in the talks – including posturing and ramping up the war of words – is not logical.

Ahmad Shohani, MP

I hope nuclear talks can lead to a definite result. If the talks possibly fail to produce a deal, the [world] public opinion will blame P5+1 for such a breakdown.

Iran hopes to clinch a deal the two sides can agree on, but if the talks end inconclusively there is no doubt that the other side will be to blame because of the new demands P5+1 have raised under pressure from the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia. […]

Everybody is praising the way the Iranian team has stuck to its stance at this stage of the talks, even those who had previously expressed concerns or made critical comments about the country’s negotiators and their performance.

Irrespective of the final result, the talks have been to the benefit of Iran. We still hope that positive results will come out of these negotiations. […]

A look at how reliable Russians are in nuclear talks

By

IFP Editorial Staff

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July 12, 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stressed that all sanctions against Iran need to be lifted. His appeal comes as the removal of the UN Security Council arms embargo against Iran has turned into a serious bone of contention over the past few days, creating a rift between the six world powers negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran.

America and its Western allies insist on keeping the embargo in place, while Russia and China want it removed.

Underscoring Iran’s role in the fight against IS terrorists, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has appealed for the lifting of the arms embargo prior to other sanctions, citing the fact that ‘it would help Iran advance its efficiency in fighting terrorism’.

The New York Times [on July 6] reported American officials and their European partners in the talks – France, Germany and Britain – have opposed any lifting of the embargoes, arguing that it will only pour fuel on the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, as well as in Yemen and Lebanon, as Iran accelerates its arming of Shiite militias.

In an interview with farau.com on July 11, Bahram Amir Ahmadian, an academic and Russia expert, described the Russian plea for the removal of arms embargoes as thought-provoking and said, “The Russian stance is dubious, because the country is already under sanctions itself and will probably have difficulty selling arms.”

He added, “Russia views Iran as a good market for arms sales and for the very reason, it pays special attention to the lifting of sanctions. From Iran’s perspective, however, the removal of financial and monetary sanctions is of greater importance, because they have an impact on the country’s financial transactions on the international stage and on its foreign trade at large.

Although the arms embargo has affected Iran’s interests, under present conditions, it is not among Tehran’s priorities.”

Amir Ahmadian said, “We should not overlook the general stance of the Russians in the negotiations. As a friend, we thought that the Russians would help Iran have the financial and monetary sanctions removed, yet they adopted a different stance.”

Describing as half-baked the recent Russian stand, he said, “I don’t think the lifting of such sanctions as Russia has put it is on Iran’s list of priorities, because the conduct of Iran at the nuclear talks with P5+1 shows otherwise.”

The expert went on to say, “Despite the sanctions of recent years, Iran has pressed ahead with its economic activities and has made progress in non-oil exports. Undoubtedly, sanctions have brought us some problems. Even arms embargoes under which we cannot buy or sell weapons have proved problematic. On the whole, we have overcome these problems, and losses caused by the arms embargo are not substantial.”

Amir Ahmadian underscored, “According to Russian experts, if Moscow fares well as far as arms exports are concerned, it can sell $7-8 billion in weapons to Iran.”

As for the problems that Iran faced in the purchase of S300 missiles from Russia, he said, “The Russians have not provided us with the weapons, nor have they given back our money. Besides, Iranian officials have said that they developed a similar defense system and no longer need S300. The Russians are not reliable partners, so their stance on the removal of arms embargoes requires careful reflection.”

The expert said that the Russians should be asked why they want the arms embargo to be lifted. “It seems that they do not have an accurate insight about Iran’s military, economic and political might; they have not accepted the fact that Iran has turned into a regional power and does not need them for its arms supply.”

Recalling the fact that Russia raises foreign currency through energy, arms and lumber exports, he said, “Now that Moscow faces problems to bring in foreign currency, it seeks to sell arms to Iran. Russia is the world’s third arms producer after the US and Europe. But with the international community going down the path of détente, Russia is mired.”

The professor highlighted that the Russians do not pursue a win-win outcome in political games and added, “By and large, we cannot count on Russia.”

In answer to a question about whether the recent Russian stance in the talks will lead anywhere or Moscow will be left alone, Amir Ahmadian said, “It is obvious that the Iranian negotiating side pursues the lifting of sanctions within a package which does not give priority to arms. Therefore, the Russians do not seem to be able to secure their intended result, because the Islamic Republic is an independent and powerful nation and no country is allowed to dictate its foreign policy or tell it what is right to do.”

Nuclear talks will never break down

By

IFP Editorial Staff

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July 12, 2015

Professor Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh, a renowned Iranian political scientist, historian and expert in international affairs, says that nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 will never break down and that the two sides will eventually walk away from the negotiating table with a deal in hand.

Prof. Mojtahedzadeh, who is also a prominent Iranologist and geopolitical researcher, made the comment in an interview with fararu.com on July 11 about the fate of nuclear negotiations and added that the talks will not remain deadlocked even if they seem on course to reaching a stalemate.

He also touched on the course the talks took in the last round during which hopes of striking a comprehensive nuclear deal was replaced by despair as the two sides put new options on the table and words swirled that the talks seemed likely to end inconclusively.

The following is the translation of excerpts from his remarks in the interview:

[…]

The main parties to nuclear talks – the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States – took stances [in the latest round of nuclear talks, days before the July 7 deadline] which were not in keeping with what they had previously announced. The Americans said their patience was running thin because of prolonged talks and the Iranians talked about US efforts to change horses in midstream.

The new stances and approaches [taken by the two sides] seemed strange, because they were not in conformity with the analyses and predictions based on the signs which had earlier pointed to an agreement. That the two sides – who had successfully jumped over the big hurdles that lay ahead – suddenly behaved in a way that dashed any hope of clinching a deal defied all expectations.

This change of course by two sides is likely to have been tactical to appease opponents at home and abroad. We all got familiar with the components necessary to clinch a deal a long time ago and we know about the characteristics of a deal which can satisfy the two parties [to the dispute]. Since the framework of the deal has already been set, creation of new frameworks would do little to help the two sides strike an agreement.

That’s why I hope this change of heart or change of course, which has been adopted by either side, is nothing more than theatrics to catch the attention of people at home and a tactic to appease domestic and foreign critics. Otherwise, this will prove that honesty and integrity are missing in the talks.

Derailing tactics

When talks drag on and the parties involved stand their ground and raise new demands which go beyond the framework of the talks – the latter is a change of course – this can somehow convince the critics the negotiating countries have to face at home and abroad that they [the negotiators] have stuck to their guns to the bitter end and seek to give as few concessions as possible to the other side.

Over the past several days, Israeli officials have expressed concern over any nuclear agreement between Iran and P5+1. The illegitimate demands of the Zionist regime for the continuation of Iran’s arms embargo – despite the fact that concerns about the true nature of Iran’s nuclear program have been eased – are a reflection of Tel Aviv’s concerns.

One sticking point in the prolonged nuclear talks has reportedly been the insistence by P5+1, especially the US, on the continued arms embargo against Iran. This comes as Iran’s arms embargo has been imposed within the framework of a UN Security Council resolution and in the wake of concerns over the nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

Accordingly, if Iran’s confidence-building measures which are in line with the framework of a comprehensive nuclear deal can remove concerns about the nature of its atomic program, the continuation of Iran’s arms embargo would be out of the question. Therefore, insistence on such an illegitimate demand which has prolonged the process that could lead to the conclusion of a comprehensive deal can be a show aimed at satisfying the main critic of the talks: Israel.

It is regrettable that an administration headed by a weak-kneed president gives in to pressures and resorts to such an approach to give concessions to Israel, so that the regime can stay calm for a while.

Agree to disagree?

This [holding one’s ground and making illegitimate demands] will not continue forever. It is public knowledge that a nuclear deal between Iran and P5+1 is certain to happen. Neither side of the talks will accept the breakdown of the talks at this stage [home stretch]. Even if the talks led to a deadlock, they would not remain deadlocked [forever]. They will find a path to conclusion of a deal, one way or another.

The reason why neither side will agree that the talks have failed is clear: a breakdown in talks will translate into the failure of the policies of the two sides, especially the United States. The collapse of nuclear talks will spell the failure of Barack Obama’s doctrine and [the end of his] political life as well as the unproductiveness of the US geopolitical plans in the Middle East.

[…]

Talks to reach a deal the only way ahead for Americans: Iranian official

By

Emad Askarieh

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July 12, 2015

In dealing with Iran, there are no options for the Americans but hold talks and reach an agreement, Secretary of the Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei told a TV talk show on Saturday, citing American inability to mount a military attack on Iran or turn up the sanctions heat.

Rezaei, a onetime commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, likened the Americans in the home stretch of the talks to a weightlifter who’s unable to bear the weight and said, “With that in mind, an extension of the talks would be normal and indicative of a lack of genuine authority in the US negotiating team.”

The following is the translation of an excerpt of Rezaei’s comments as reported by entekhab.ir on July 12:

The Americans have shifted the focus from nuclear issue to the question of missiles. They argue that Iran should not possess missiles with a range of more than 300 km. This is meant to prevent Iran from defending itself if the Zionist regime decided to attack Iran one day.

In other words, the Americans harbor ill intentions against Iran; they seek to impose a war on Iran in the future. To that end, they are trying to deny us the means to fight back.

American efforts to divert the talks from what was originally designed to be covered have put the negotiating process in danger. The important thing at this juncture is Obama’s managerial skill. This case seems to be too difficult for Obama to handle.

[…]

After the sedition of 2009 [the riots two presidential candidates sparked by disputing the results of the presidential elections] the Americans wrongfully thought that Iran was weakened and that time was right for imposition of additional sanctions. Later when the Iranians put up stiff resistance, they learned about their mistakes.

Although President Obama tried to lift the very sanctions he had signed into law, thanks to local and Zionist pressures he was unable to remain on top of the situation. The same inability forced John Kerry to cop out on an agreement the two sides had struck.

What is going on in Vienna today is a war over wording and texts. The US president should not display any more weakness. He should make a decision.

The Iranian nuclear negotiating team led by Foreign Minister Zarif is diplomatically skilled and has been able to stand up for our stance and national interests. The diplomats who preceded Mr. Zarif had a difficult task on their hands too.

Members of the team know that they have to fight to have the red lines set by the Supreme Leader respected. They should ramp up their endeavors, because they have the backing of an entire nation.

Any deal with P5+1 comes in two stages. One is agreed to at the venue of the talks and the other is what is approved of in Tehran and Washington. Once what is written at the talks secures the final go-ahead in Tehran and Washington and Iran and P5+1 simultaneously implement its provisions and sanctions are lifted in a reasonable period of time, can one say that a final deal has been clinched.

Americans should embrace the smile Messrs. Rouhani and Zarif are wearing today. These same individuals smiled 13 years ago, but the US failed to seize the opportunity. As a result, Iran assembled 20,000 centrifuges and enriched uranium to 20 percent levels.

Monetary and financial sanctions should be lifted as soon as possible. Iran is quite serious in supervising the implementation of a possible deal.

[…]

As for the so-called possible military dimensions, many outstanding issues have been resolved. On the diplomatic front, things are nearing completion. China, Russia and Germany are praising Iran’s cooperation and doubting the stance of the Americans who have pushed themselves into a corner in the talks.

Iran will not allow access by inspectors to its military sites; that is what every country does; Iran too will play by the book.

Everyone should support the negotiating team; actually that is what is happening. The Supreme Leader helped rally the nation behind the negotiators.

The Iranian negotiators should keep insisting on our national interests, and the Americans should know that they cannot take any military action against Iran and imposition of more sanctions won’t work.

By raising the question of missiles in the talks, the Americans committed a strategic blunder. Instead of winning over the Iranian people, they revived 70-year-old memories the Iranians have in mind of the US.

Historical Fort of Babak in Northwestern Iran

By

Fatemeh Askarieh

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July 12, 2015

Historical Fort of Babak in Northwestern Iran

Babak Fort, or Babak Castle, is a large historical citadel perched on top of a mountain in Arasbaran forests in northwestern Iran. It is believed to have been a stronghold of Babak Khorramdin, the leader of the Khurramites in Azerbaijan who fought Arabs.

The castle is one of the greatest examples of Iranian architecture. The fort built during the Sassanid dynasty is 2,300-2,700 m. above sea level. The main gate is the only way to access the fort which is impenetrable from the surrounding mountains.

Photos of the fort posted online by hamshahrionline.ir:

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