Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani seeks a second term in an exercise that a growing young electorate increasingly views as a vehicle for established parties to divide up the Middle East nation’s oil wealth.
Sudani’s bloc is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority, potentially meaning months of post-election talks among Shi’ite and Sunni Muslim as well as Kurdish parties to divvy up government posts and pick a prime minister.
Elections in Iraq are increasingly marked by low turnout. Many voters have lost faith in a system which has failed to break a pattern of state capture by powerful parties with armed loyalists, while ordinary Iraqis complain of endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.
Turnout hit a record low in is projected by analysts and pollsters to slip below a record low of 41% in 2021, thanks partly to general disillusionment and to a boycott by Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who counts hundreds of thousands of voters among his core support base.
The vote this year features a raft of young candidates hoping to break into politics, but their chances against old patronage networks are uncertain.
“This election will not depend on popularity. It will depend on spending money,” former prime minister Haider al-Abadi stated during a televised interview last month.
Analysts warn that low participation among civilians could further erode confidence in a system critics say benefits the few while neglecting the many.
“For Iraq’s 21 million registered voters, Tuesday’s ballot may do little more than endorse a familiar political order,” Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis said, adding, “The results are not expected to make dramatic changes in the Iraqi political map.”
Still, the vote, in which results are expected after several days, comes at a sensitive time for the country.
The next government will need to navigate the delicate balance between U.S. and Iranian influence, and manage dozens of armed groups that are closer to Tehran and answerable more to their own leaders than to the state, all while facing growing pressure from Washington to dismantle those militias.
Iraq has so far avoided the worst of the regional upheaval caused by the Gaza war, but will face U.S. and Israeli wrath if it fails to contain militants aligned with Iran.
Those elected will also face domestic pressure to deliver tangible improvements in everyday life and prevent public discontent over corruption from spilling into unrest, as it did during mass demonstrations in 2019 and 2020.
Iraq began voting for its politicians in 2005, after the 2003 U.S. invasion which toppled Saddam Hussein.
Early elections were marred by sectarian violence and boycotted by Sunni Muslims as Saddam’s ouster allowed for the political dominance of the majority Shi’ites, whom he had suppressed during his long rule.
Sectarianism has largely subsided, especially among younger Iraqis, but remains embedded in a political system that shares out government posts among Shi’ites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians and other ethnic and religious groups.
Under Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing system, the prime minister will be Shi’ite, the speaker of parliament Sunni, and the president a Kurd.
