Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, occupying parts of the eastern Donbas region and illegally annexing the Crimean peninsula.
Since then, Ukraine’s population has fallen by over 10 million and the number of refugees has surged to 6.7 million, with the full-scale invasion of 2022 exacerbating an already dire decline.
“The birth rate plummeted and is currently at around one child per woman, which is one of the lowest in the world,” Bauer said at a briefing in Geneva.
Ukraine’s birth rate is now the lowest in Europe, according to the UN.
Refugees account for a major portion of Ukraine’s population loss, with casualties of Russia’s war another contributing factor.
“It’s difficult to have exact numbers, but estimates range around tens of thousands of casualties,” Bauer added.
The population of Ukraine totaled 37.441 million as of Jan. 1, 2024, but more declines are expected in the coming years. A UN forecast in July predicted that the population might drop to as low as 15.3 million people by 2100.
Ukraine and the UNFPA have partnered in developing a national demographic strategy, Bauer said. The strategy focuses on human capital rather than simply trying to increase the birth rate.
The path to population stability also depends on an end to the war, Bauer acknowledged.
Russia is facing its own demographic crisis, with a projected decline of about 7 million over the next two decades.
