According to calculations by a research team at the prestigious Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research based in the northeastern port city of Rostock, at least 100,000 people have apparently died or been killed in the war, which has lasted more than two years.

“We will never know the exact number of dead. We are only trying to estimate as accurately as possible what a realistic order of magnitude might be,” said Irena Chen, co-leader of the project.

Based on calculations by the researchers, between 99,997 and 125,915 people died or were killed in the fighting in the Gaza Strip during the first two years of the war. The researchers’ median estimate is 112,069 people.

The Max Planck scientists compiled data from various sources and performed a statistical projection. In addition to data from the Gaza-based Ministry of Health, they also incorporated an independent household survey and death reports from social media.

Until now, the only official source for the number of deaths was the Health Ministry of the Gaza Strip, which reported 67,173 deaths in the first two years of the war.

However, there is no evidence of statistical manipulation, according to Zeit.

On the contrary, various research teams have previously determined that the Ministry of Health tends to be conservative in its counting. It is now well-documented that more people died in the war between Israel and Hamas than the official figures indicate. Different studies consistently arrive at a high number of unreported deaths.

The Ministry of Health only counts confirmed deaths, for example, those with a death certificate from a hospital. Since many hospitals had to cease normal operations during the war, the ministry now also uses death notifications from relatives; a panel then verifies the information. Victims buried under the rubble of bombed-out buildings, for instance, are often not recorded.

The Max Planck team based their research upon previous findings and calculated detailed mortality estimates. They analyzed men and women, as well as different age groups, separately.

This approach not only produces more precise overall figures, but it also enables detailed differentiation of who died. The accuracy of death records varies by gender and age; women are counted less frequently than men. Official statistics frequently fail to include deaths among people over the age of 60.

According to the researchers’ calculations, approximately 27% of the war dead are likely to be children under the age of 15, with approximately 24% being women.

The researchers have also calculated the impact of the war on life expectancy in the Gaza Strip.

Before the war, it was 77 years for women and 74 for men. For 2024, the demographers project a figure of 46 years for women and 36 for men. This is initially only a statistical value.

It indicates that if the fighting continues indefinitely, as it has in recent years, Palestinians will only reach this average age. These figures demonstrate how dangerous life has become for the civilian population of the Gaza Strip.

The Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF) closed its sites in October after the United Nations and other NGOs were allowed to resume deliveries in the war-torn enclave, which has been recognised as a genocide by the UN.

Speaking about GHF’s four-and-a-half-month deadly stint in Gaza, executive director John Acree said in a statement that the organisation had set new standards in aid delivery, despite widespread criticism of the organisation by the world’s most reputable aid distribution networks.

“This mission was designed to show that humanitarian aid can be delivered efficiently, safely, and transparently even in the most challenging conflict zones,” Acree added.

“With the support of the Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) and the broader international community, we have successfully demonstrated a new standard for aid operations in Gaza.”

Acree, who was previously director of USAID’s stabilisation office in Afghanistan, stated that the CMCC would be “adopting and expanding” the model that GHF set out.

“As a result, we are winding down our operations as we have succeeded in our mission of showing there’s a better way to deliver aid to Gazans,” he continued.

GHF announced it was established only as a “temporary emergency initiative”.

The privately-funded GHF took control of aid distribution in the enclave in late May after Israel imposed a total blockade on all humanitarian and commercial supplies from 2 March onwards. Almost three months later, when GHF set up militarised operations, starvation was widespread in Gaza as supplies were in short supply or non-existent.

Experienced NGOs and aid distributors expressed concern about both GHF’s delivery model and the complete lack of experience in delivering aid.

Unlike other NGOs, GHF did not directly provide aid to people in need. Instead, it opened four distribution sites in the south of the Gaza Strip and required people in the enclave to travel there, even if it meant walking for days. It was especially challenging for those in the north, where there were no food distribution services.

If people did not fall sick or die while travelling there, they were at risk of being injured or killed trying to obtain aid at the sites where armed Israeli soldiers and US security contractors operated.

According to whistleblowers such as Anthony Aguilar, other witnesses and videos shared to social media, many Palestinians were said to have been deliberately shot by Israeli soldiers or US security contractors hired by GHF, after following direct orders from their superiors.

Despite this, thousands of Palestinians braved going to GHF sites every day to obtain food for themselves and their families, until a ceasefire was reached on 10 October.

Gaza’s health ministry reported that, in addition to over 2,600 Palestinians who were killed, at least 19,182 were injured while trying to get aid while GHF operated.

The GHF has denied that anyone was killed at their sites and says the UN figures on the number of aid seekers killed are “false and misleading”, saying that it only fired warning shots at aid seekers.

Questions still surround GHF, including its funding sources. In August, the Center for Constitutional Rights filed a lawsuit seeking records from the Trump administration on its funding for GHF.

Israel’s war on Gaza has killed and wounded more than 245,000 Palestinians to date, the majority of whom are civilians.

Reports released in August and based on Israeli military intelligence data indicate that more than 80 percent of those killed through May of this year were civilians.