Coronavirus Infection Rate in Iran to Drop in Coming Weeks: Expert

In an article, Payman Salamati has referred to memoirs by renowned American epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who was the brain behind the eradication of smallpox in the world.

In his memoirs, Brilliant speaks of the time when the H1N1 virus had broken out. The American specialist says he asked top epidemiologist what would happen if the disease would become a pandemic. In response, they answered that around one billion people would be infected and some 165 million would die.

Salamati mentioned this brief extract to highlight people’s concern over the coronavirus outbreak in Iran. However, he said he personally believes the disease will be controlled in Iran soon.

“In recent days, we have witnessed a new disease outbreak in the country, which has caused great panic among our fellow countrymen. For different reasons, I believe that this disease will be controlled in the coming weeks, and the infections and fatality rate from the disease will decrease,” he said.

He refers to a February 24, 2020 report by the World Health Organization to support his claim.

Salamati says the report shows the rate of coronavirus infection in China slowed down after 3 to 4 weeks.

“The report says no major changes happened to the genome of the virus in that [3-to-4-week] period,” says Salamati.

“All the above points show we are facing a similar situation in the country, and there are no worries about a possible genetic change to the virus, which is a dangerous and uncontrollable forms of epidemics,” Salamati added.

He also referred to good cooperation between medical personnel, the health ministry and people as another reason why he believes the rate of coronavirus infection in the country will fall in the coming weeks.

He said doctors and medical personnel are trying their best and people are observing hygiene rules, which contributes heavily to controlling the disease.

Salamati further said it would be a good idea to create panic among people, so that they will fully abide by hygienic principles.

“Some doctors and experts believe when it comes to medical-hygienic issues, people should have deep fears, so that they will comply with instructions,” he said.

The expert then underscored that experience shows epidemics in recent years have all finally been controlled.

“Since the beginning of this century, the H1N1 virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) went through a trend for some time and then were brought under control,” he added.

Given the above-mentioned points, he says, the rate of infection is expected to drop soon.

 

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