Two Analyses on Recent Developments in Saudi Arabia

Political analyst Khosrow Qadiri has, in an article published by the Persian-language newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad, weighed in on the latest developments in Saudi Arabia. The following are the highlights of the analytical piece.

The rapidly evolving developments in Saudi Arabia which have overshadowed all events in the Middle East are of special significance to Iran. As it is necessary to find the root causes of these developments to work out how we should deal with or confront them and predict future events, a hot debate is going on over what has triggered these unprecedented developments. Overall, two analyses exist when it comes to determining the origin of the developments.

Based on the first analysis, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitiousness, immaturity and haste are to blame for the developments unfolding. According to the other analysis, the events are playing out within the framework of a “master plan” whose masterminds are radical American and Israeli hawks. Both of them happen to be in power and have what it takes to implement such plans.

Under such circumstances, Iran should be prepared for both scenarios and needs to have drawn up appropriate plans to deal with either of them. One can say with certainty that Iran’s political prudence as well as military might and experience will be enough to deal with either of the two scenarios. Maybe it is too early to pass definitive judgement on which one of the two analyses on the root causes of the developments in Saudi Arabia is correct and will actually unfold. We should be a little patient and at the same time remain prudent and cautious.