Stability in Syria unlikely in short term, Iranian analyst opines

A senior Iranian political analyst has attributed the swift and fluid developments in Syria to the “shift in the balance of power in the Middle East.”

In an interview with Shargh newspaper, Abbas Abdi said that the shift, both psychologically and on the ground, enabled forces opposed to now-toppled president Bashar al-Assad to gain the upper hand.

Abdi explained that Syria’s military-security government heavily relied on military and security measures and over the past 12 years, as public protests emerged, Assad’s reliance on foreign support, particularly from Tehran and Moscow, increased.

He suggested that if Russia had made a behind-the-scenes deal and Iran and Hezbollah’s support weakened, it was natural for the Syrian government to feel vulnerable and surrender.

He also added that the 14-year war in the country exhausted Syria, making it unbearable for its people and weakening the country’s foreign supporters both materially and politically.

Looking ahead, Abdi expressed pessimism about Syria’s post-Assad era, doubting the country’s ability to achieve relative stability in the short term given the myriad of political and armed groups, as well as regional and international actors involved.

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