Food prices in Syria falling since collapse of al-Assad: Report

Many food items are now half their pre-revolution prices, whilst some goods that were previously unavailable – such as higher quality meat and Jordanian lemons – are back on market stalls.

According to shop owners, deflation has been a result of the reduction in transport costs after the removal of thousands of military checkpoints across the country.

Military personnel would routinely demand payment for safe passage through checkpoints, significantly increasing the cost of getting food from farms to the market.

“Between Damascus and the agricultural areas in Daraa there were hundreds of checkpoints. It was the same for Homs,” said Abu Jamil, 47, a greengrocer at the Souk al-Hal in central Damascus.

“They were all controlled by the Fourth Division,” he added, referring to the army unit commanded by Bashar al-Assad’s notoriously rapacious brother, Maher al-Assad.

During the war, with state revenues in tatters, the Fourth Division asserted control over many areas of the economy in a bid to extract rent from any available opportunity.

But with the checkpoints gone, the prices for many goods has plummeted.

Potatoes are less than half their former price, falling from SYP 9,000 per kilogram ($0.75) to SYP 4,000 ($0.33).

Bananas from Lebanon have fallen by a third, whilst olive oil from the northern province of Idlib is just a quarter of the price Damascenes were paying in November last year.

According to the FX tracking website, black market dollar rates for the Syrian lira surged to 22,000 around the time of Assad’s downfall, but have since stabilised at approximately 12,000 this week.

Other popular consumables such as cigarettes, where wholesale was monopolised by the Fourth Division, have also fallen dramatically. A pack of 20 cigarettes that cost SYP 13,000 just a month ago, now sells for SYP 7,000.

Experts have pointed to two other factors easing the prices of foodstuffs. The sustained decrease in the exchange rate of the Syrian lira has allowed imports to become less expensive.

Meanwhile, the collapse of the Assad government’s armed forces has increased the amount of available food for sale on domestic markets.

“The basic goods that used to be prioritised for the 170,000 soldiers are now diverted into the market and this in turn has increased the supply,” said Mohamad Ahmad, an economist at Karam Shaar Advisory.

“The decrease in prices could be sustainable,” added Ahmad, “especially if other factors remain stable such as customs and taxes, and certainly the stability of the exchange rate.”

Whilst the falling cost of putting meat and vegetables on the table certainly helps make daily life more affordable for many Syrians, there is a risk that new government policies could make bread prices double in the near future.

In the last week, the interim minister for internal trade and consumer protection, Maher Khalil al-Hasan, announced a controversial plan to scrap the bread subsidy in Syria within the next two months.

Bread had been one of the few goods which the former government continued to subsidise throughout the conflict.

Meanwhile, the news on food prices is also tempered by the wider economic malaise that poses serious challenges for Syrians in the immediate future.

Syria’s economy collapsed during the conflict, contracting by 84 percent according to World Bank data, pushing nearly 90 percent of Syrians into poverty.

Economic recovery is hampered by far-reaching sanctions imposed by the West on individuals and institutions associated with the former government and entities designated as a terrorist organisation, notably Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which led the offensive against Assad.

In an interview with Reuters, Hasan warned that Syria faces a “catastrophe” if sanctions are not lifted, as they prevent the import of vital goods such as fuel, wheat, and other essentials.

The most comprehensive of these sanctions regimes is the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, passed by the US Congress in 2019. It severely restricts Syria’s ability to import or export nearly all goods.

The Joe Biden administration has announced some sanctions waivers for activities crucial to providing humanitarian assistance and supporting economic recovery, such as energy provision.

However, with many sanctions still in effect, the full impact of these waivers remains to be seen.