Expert: Yemen, Iran nuclear program, keys to Tehran-Riyadh ties

Fatemeh Nekou Laal Azad, in an article in the news and analysis web site, irandiplomacy.ir, referred to the recent talks between Iran and Sudi Arabia, adding talks can reduce tensions and result in renewal of relations, but will not necessarily lead to stability in ties.

She said “after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have had various ups and downs and have experienced different periods of political relations, tension and crisis in relations, detente and rapprochement.”

“The political relations between the two countries were last severed in December 2015. In recent months, meetings between Iranian and Saudi officials have happened in Baghdad with Iraq being the mediator. The goal was to normalize relations between the two countries. Experience shows talks can reduce tensions and result in renewal of relations, but will not necessarily lead to stability in ties between the two countries. In the past, talks resulted in a rapprochement, but this time the situation is completely different because this time around the root-cause of crisis in the Iran-Saudi Arabia relations is by nature different.”

“The fact is that the reopening of embassies is the most superficial layer of relations, and Iran-Saudi Arabia relations are affected by other factors. If those factors are not addressed, the reopening of embassies and consulates will not last. Two key factors are the Yemeni war and the Iranian nuclear issue.”

“The Saudis view Yemen’s Ansarullah as a threat and a pawn of Iran. But the reality is Ansarullah is not completely controlled by the Islamic republic. As long as this source of discord between Tehran and Riyadh persists, one should not expect peace in their relations.”

“Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is an opponent of Iran’s nuclear program. Whenever tensions mount between Iran and the West over the matter, Tehran-Riyadh relations are also strained. This means that if the talks on reviving the nuclear deal do not pay off, tensions persist between Tehran and Riyadh.

Accordingly, to achieve peace in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, the two countries should reach an agreement on the war in Yemen and Iran’s nuclear program. Otherwise, ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be cold and fragile and the two sides risk severing their relations at any moment.”