Satellite images reveal Saudi Arabia may be quietly expanding ballistic missile force

Fabian Hinz, a defence and military researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), analysed the images in a report.

Riyadh first established long-range surface-to-surface missiles in the 1980s in response to the Iran-Iraq war and the broader proliferation of missile capabilities in the region.

Details about the development of its missile programme since then have been scarce, as the Persian Gulf kingdom rarely displays its long-range weaponry openly.

The IISS report found what appears to be the construction of an underground missile base near the town of al-Nabhaniyah in central Saudi Arabia. Construction began in 2019 and was mostly complete by early 2024, it added.

The site marks the first facility of its kind built since the 1980s, the report stated.

Signs that the site is a missile base, Hinz said, include: a similar style of administrative building to other Saudi missile bases, a similar geographical separation between the underground complex and overground residential and administrative areas, and a tunnel entrance resembling that of an existing base.

Contractor records also show that the project in al-Nabhaniyah falls under the defence ministry.

The report also adds that new construction has taken place at the existing Saudi missile force base in Wadi al-Dawasir. The latest addition is a large building, which may serve as an operational or support building within the complex.

The IISS also notes signs of modernisation and expansion at a missile base headquarters in Riyadh, as well as new tunnels or underground sections constructed at bases in al-Hariq, Raniyah and al-Sulayyil.

Saudi Arabia’s long-range missile capabilities remain highly secretive.

The kingdom carried out a large-scale military exercise with a display of its Chinese-made Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles in 2014, showcasing the missiles for the first time.

In December 2021, CNN reported that Saudi Arabia was actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with Chinese assistance, citing US intelligence assessments.

The Intercept reported in May 2022, citing a US intelligence source, that Riyadh was planning to import Chinese ballistic missiles under a programme named “Crocodile”.

As part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 programme to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil, the kingdom is attempting to boost its domestic defence manufacturing industry.

“The apparent absence of ballistic-missile use in Saudi Arabia’s campaign against Ansarullah (the Houthis) indicates that these systems might serve more as a strategic deterrent than a war-fighting capability,” wrote Hinz.

“As such, their true role may only come to light in crisis.”