Elon Musk says longer conflict strengthens Russia

Responding to news that Russian forces were advancing into the strategically important Donbass town of Avdeevka, Musk wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that “the longer this goes on, the better Russia will do”.

The Russian Defense Ministry has announced the liberation of the town, after a panicked retreat that cost Ukrainian forces some 1,500 men in just 24 hours. With Avdeevka taken, the ministry added that Russian forces will continue their offensive to “further liberate the Donetsk People’s Republic from Ukrainian nationalists”.

Ukrainian and American officials have blamed the loss of the city on the drying up of Western aid, while the Pentagon warned on Friday that the situation in Avdeevka could soon be repeated in “many other locations along the forward line”, if American lawmakers fail to authorize a new $60 billion package of arms, ammo, and training for Kiev.

In addition to the ammunition shortage, Ukraine is also grappling with the loss of hundreds of thousands of soldiers. This “critical” manpower deficit could soon result in a collapse along the entire front, the Washington Post reported earlier this month. Long before, the recently-ousted commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military, General Valery Zaluzhny, warned that the conflict had reached a “stalemate”, and that Russia’s larger population and greater resources placed it at an advantage in a drawn-out fight.

Musk has also spoken extensively about the trajectory of the conflict. More than a year ago, the billionaire proposed that Kiev abandon its claim to Crimea, declare neutrality, and allow the four new Russian regions – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye – to hold fresh referendums on joining the Russian Federation. This proposal is similar to the terms offered by Russia to Kiev and the Western powers before the conflict began, except Moscow initially called only for autonomy in Donetsk and Lugansk.

Musk has accused top US officials – most notably Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, known for her role in the 2014 Maidan coup in Kiev – of “pushing this war”. On Saturday the Tesla mogul endorsed a post by American investor David Sacks, who argued that the conflict is “meat grinder” that will only end when Ukraine “lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making”.

Despite favoring a ceasefire, Musk donated some 20,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine shortly after Russia launched its military operation in February 2022. However, Musk said last year that he had refused Kiev’s request to activate the service near Crimea, as doing so would allow the Ukrainian military to use Starlink to guide attack drones to Russian targets, making SpaceX “complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation”.

Musk has since leased his Starlink network to the Pentagon for military purposes.

The remarks came as US President Joe Biden made a renewed appeal to Congress to approve $60 billion in military aid for Kiev, saying that “no-one can be” confident Ukraine won’t lose more ground without it.

“I spoke with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky this afternoon to let him know that I was confident we’re going to get that money,” Biden told reporters in Delaware on Saturday, hours after the Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of Avdeevka.

The White House, the Pentagon, and Zelensky have blamed the loss of Avdeevka on the dwindling supplies of US arms and ammunition reaching Ukraine.

The US has already given Kiev more than $44.2 billion in military aid, but no additional funds have been appropriated, and a foreign aid bill that would allocate another $60 billion in military assistance to Kiev remains stalled in Congress, where House Republicans want it tied to a major tightening of US immigration law and funding for border security.

“I’m going to fight to get them the ammunition they need,” Biden said, adding that it would be “absurd” and “unethical” for Republicans to continue blocking the bill.

Asked whether he could be certain Ukraine would hold on to other front line cities without more American weapons and ammo, Biden replied “I’m not. I’m not. No one can be.”

President Vladimir Putin told reporter Pavel Zarubin on Sunday the Ukraine crisis is of existential importance for Russia, while it is only a tactical issue for NATO.